Birthday Present

Math Forum: Ask Dr. Math FAQ: The Birthday Problem -- Ask Dr. Math: FAQ The Birthday Problem Dr. Math FAQ || Classic Problems || Formulas || Search Dr. Math || Dr. Math Home Suppose you flip a coin and bet that it will come up tails. Since you are equally likely to get heads or tails, the probability of tails is 50%. This means that if you try this bet often, you should win about half the time. What if somebody offered to bet that at least two people in your math class had the same birthday? Would you take the bet? This question is more complicated than flipping a coin, because the chance of finding two people with the same birthday depends on the number of people you ask. If there were only one other person in your math class, you might be surprised to find out that she had the same birthday as you. If there were a pair of people with the same birthday in a class of 366 people, would you still be surprised? How large must a class be to make the probability of finding two people with the same birthday at least 50%? Let's forget about leap year when we solve this problem (no February 29 birthdays!) This way, we can assume that a year is always 365 days long. We'll start by figuring out the probability that two people have the same birthday. The first person can have any birthday. That gives him 365 possible birthdays out of 365 days, so the probability of the first person having the "right" birthday is 365/365, or 100%. The chance that the second person has the same birthday is 1/365. To find the probability that both people have this birthday, we have to multiply their separate probabilities. (365/365) * (1/365) = 1/365, or about 0.27%. Now, what about three people ? The chance of the first and second person sharing a birthday is still 1/365. The first and third person might share a birthday instead. The probability of that is 1/365 as well. But what if the second and third person shared a birthday? And what if all three of them had the same birthday? Things are getting complicated fast. Four or five people would be even messier. Is there a simpler way? To solve the birthday problem, we need to use one of the basic rules of probability: the sum of the probability that an event will happen and the probability that the event won't happen is always 1. (In other words, the chance that anything might or might nothappen is always 100%.) If we can work out the probability that no two people will have the same birthday, we can use this rule to find the probability that two people will share a birthday: P(event happens) + P(event doesn't happen) = 1 P(two people share birthday) + P(no two people share birthday) = 1 P(two people share birthday) = 1 - P(no two people share birthday). So, what is the probability that no two people will share a birthday? Again, the first person can have any birthday. The second person's birthday has to be different. There are 364 different days to choose from, so the chance that two people have different birthdays is 364/365. That leaves 363 birthdays out of 365 open for the third person. To find the probability that both the second person and the third person will have different birthdays, we have to multiply: (365/365) * (364/365) * (363/365) = 132 132/133 225, which is about 99.18%. If we want to know the probability that four people will all have different birthdays, we multiply again: (364/365) * (363/365) * (362/365) = 47 831 784/ 48 627 125, or about 98.36%. We can keep on going the same way as long as we want. A formula for the probability that n people have different birthdays is ((365-1)/365) * ((365-2)/365) * ((365-3)/365) * . . . * ((365-n+1)/365). If you know permutation notation, you can write this formula as (365_P_n)/(365^n). That's the same as 365! / ((365-n)! * 365^n). We've made some progress, but we still haven't answered the original question: how large must a class be to make the probability of finding two people with the same birthday at least 50%? We know that the probability of finding at least two people with the same birthday is 1 minus the probability that everybody has a different birthday, and we know how to find the probability that everybody has a different birthday for any number of people. The easiest way to find the right class size is to use a calculator to try different numbers in the formula. It turns out that the smallest class where the chance of finding two people with the same birthday is more than 50% is... a class of 23 people . (The probability is about 50.73%.) From the Dr. Math archives: Probability Theory: Coincidental Birthday Probability of the Same Birthday within a Group Birthday Probabilities Three Share a Birthday The Birthday Problem; Queuing at a Bank Birthday Probability, Class of 25 One Person of Seven Born on Monday Odds of Left-Handedness in a Group From the Web: The Birthday Problem: A short lesson in probability , George Reese A Java applet that you can use to test different class sizes (it works better with small classes) and graphs of the probability for different numbers of people. The Law of Small Errors , Keith Devlin The birthday problem, and related questions - what's the probability that someone will have your birthday? Birthday Surprises, Ivars Peterson Birthday Problem, Eric Weisstein's World of Mathematics Coincidence, Alexander Bogomolny How to Read Mathematics, Shai Simonson and Fernando Gouveau This article uses an explanation of the birthday problem as an example. An Introduction to Mathematica and the "Birthday Problem," Louie Beuschlein For a general review of probability: Probability, Dr. Math FAQ Probability in the Real World, Dr. Math FAQ - Ursula Whitcher, for the Math Forum Submit your ownquestion to Dr. Math [ Privacy Policy ] [ Terms of Use ] Math Forum Home || Math Library || Quick Reference || Math Forum Search Ask Dr. Math ® © 1994-2005 The Math Forum http://mathforum.org/dr.math/

Birthday Presents For my

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Her mom picked me up at six. She had a neighbor, Talon, who lived about four houses down the street. Talon called my cell around midnight. All three of us were good friends. I ran into the bathroom upstairs and answered it. He told me to pretend to be tired, and then once JoAnne fell asleep, I was to walk to his house because he and Mitchell, his friend, had presents for me. So, around 12:30 in the morning, I walked down the street. His room was in the basement, so I knocked there. Mitchell came out wearing only his boxers. I was in a tight, black, tank top and guy's boxer shorts. I walked through the family room to Talon's room. Talon came downstairs in boxers and said, "Oh, I forgot your present upstairs." So, he turned around and walked back upstairs. I sat on Talon's bed and Mitchell came over. He gave me priceless diamond earrings and asked me to be his girlfriend. I said yes. He came over and sat next to me. We made out for almost an hour until he tried to have sex with me. "No," I said. He walked down the hall. I peered through the doorway to see him grabbing a condom, and then he came back to Talon's room. It was 1:30 then. We had sex for three hours until I said we should stop. Talon came back downstairs a few minutes later. He explained that he was hung over from yesterday and had fallen asleep on the couch upstairs. I now know the whole thing was a setup because yesterday JoAnne and I had hung out with him. He gave me a beautiful necklace with a ruby colored flip-flop on it. I asked if someone could walk with me up the street because it was so dark out and I was scared. Surprisingly, Talon volunteered. So, we walked back up to JoAnne's house. I sat down on JoAnne's swing because I was putting my new earrings and necklace on. Talon sat down next to me and we started to kiss. He ran his arm up and down my chest. I pushed away and told him that Mitchell and I were going out now and asked if we could still be friends. He said yes and walked me to the door. We hugged, and I gave him a quick kiss on the mouth because I felt bad for him. I waved goodbye. When I walked downstairs to where JoAnne was, she was standing up with her arms crossed and tapping her foot. She asked where I had been. She had never fallen asleep but only faked as though she had. So, I told her the whole story. To this day, it's only me, Talon, JoAnne, and Mitchell who know what happened. -Lacy, 18 • More Scandalous Confessions! • Submit Your Confession Now • Send This Confession To a Friend! • Check Out Dating Disasters Cast Your Vote! What do you think of this confession? Happens all the time. Great love confession! Never did that. Wish I could experience that. More Hot Features • Secrets From Lovers? Two Views • Single? 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