Birthday Present

Math Forum: Ask Dr. Math FAQ: The Birthday Problem -- Ask Dr. Math: FAQ The Birthday Problem Dr. Math FAQ || Classic Problems || Formulas || Search Dr. Math || Dr. Math Home Suppose you flip a coin and bet that it will come up tails. Since you are equally likely to get heads or tails, the probability of tails is 50%. This means that if you try this bet often, you should win about half the time. What if somebody offered to bet that at least two people in your math class had the same birthday? Would you take the bet? This question is more complicated than flipping a coin, because the chance of finding two people with the same birthday depends on the number of people you ask. If there were only one other person in your math class, you might be surprised to find out that she had the same birthday as you. If there were a pair of people with the same birthday in a class of 366 people, would you still be surprised? How large must a class be to make the probability of finding two people with the same birthday at least 50%? Let's forget about leap year when we solve this problem (no February 29 birthdays!) This way, we can assume that a year is always 365 days long. We'll start by figuring out the probability that two people have the same birthday. The first person can have any birthday. That gives him 365 possible birthdays out of 365 days, so the probability of the first person having the "right" birthday is 365/365, or 100%. The chance that the second person has the same birthday is 1/365. To find the probability that both people have this birthday, we have to multiply their separate probabilities. (365/365) * (1/365) = 1/365, or about 0.27%. Now, what about three people ? The chance of the first and second person sharing a birthday is still 1/365. The first and third person might share a birthday instead. The probability of that is 1/365 as well. But what if the second and third person shared a birthday? And what if all three of them had the same birthday? Things are getting complicated fast. Four or five people would be even messier. Is there a simpler way? To solve the birthday problem, we need to use one of the basic rules of probability: the sum of the probability that an event will happen and the probability that the event won't happen is always 1. (In other words, the chance that anything might or might nothappen is always 100%.) If we can work out the probability that no two people will have the same birthday, we can use this rule to find the probability that two people will share a birthday: P(event happens) + P(event doesn't happen) = 1 P(two people share birthday) + P(no two people share birthday) = 1 P(two people share birthday) = 1 - P(no two people share birthday). So, what is the probability that no two people will share a birthday? Again, the first person can have any birthday. The second person's birthday has to be different. There are 364 different days to choose from, so the chance that two people have different birthdays is 364/365. That leaves 363 birthdays out of 365 open for the third person. To find the probability that both the second person and the third person will have different birthdays, we have to multiply: (365/365) * (364/365) * (363/365) = 132 132/133 225, which is about 99.18%. If we want to know the probability that four people will all have different birthdays, we multiply again: (364/365) * (363/365) * (362/365) = 47 831 784/ 48 627 125, or about 98.36%. We can keep on going the same way as long as we want. A formula for the probability that n people have different birthdays is ((365-1)/365) * ((365-2)/365) * ((365-3)/365) * . . . * ((365-n+1)/365). If you know permutation notation, you can write this formula as (365_P_n)/(365^n). That's the same as 365! / ((365-n)! * 365^n). We've made some progress, but we still haven't answered the original question: how large must a class be to make the probability of finding two people with the same birthday at least 50%? We know that the probability of finding at least two people with the same birthday is 1 minus the probability that everybody has a different birthday, and we know how to find the probability that everybody has a different birthday for any number of people. The easiest way to find the right class size is to use a calculator to try different numbers in the formula. It turns out that the smallest class where the chance of finding two people with the same birthday is more than 50% is... a class of 23 people . (The probability is about 50.73%.) From the Dr. Math archives: Probability Theory: Coincidental Birthday Probability of the Same Birthday within a Group Birthday Probabilities Three Share a Birthday The Birthday Problem; Queuing at a Bank Birthday Probability, Class of 25 One Person of Seven Born on Monday Odds of Left-Handedness in a Group From the Web: The Birthday Problem: A short lesson in probability , George Reese A Java applet that you can use to test different class sizes (it works better with small classes) and graphs of the probability for different numbers of people. The Law of Small Errors , Keith Devlin The birthday problem, and related questions - what's the probability that someone will have your birthday? Birthday Surprises, Ivars Peterson Birthday Problem, Eric Weisstein's World of Mathematics Coincidence, Alexander Bogomolny How to Read Mathematics, Shai Simonson and Fernando Gouveau This article uses an explanation of the birthday problem as an example. An Introduction to Mathematica and the "Birthday Problem," Louie Beuschlein For a general review of probability: Probability, Dr. Math FAQ Probability in the Real World, Dr. Math FAQ - Ursula Whitcher, for the Math Forum Submit your ownquestion to Dr. Math [ Privacy Policy ] [ Terms of Use ] Math Forum Home || Math Library || Quick Reference || Math Forum Search Ask Dr. Math ® © 1994-2005 The Math Forum http://mathforum.org/dr.math/

Baby Gifts New Baby

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Birthday Present

Housewarming gifts Dating Photo

Housewarming gifts SY L.com > Online Dating Service > Flowers & Gifts > Popular gift ideas > Housewarming gifts Dating Photo Personals Meet singles Personal Ads Tour Join Articles Login Housewarming gifts Flowers & Gifts Your personal gift guide Gift aid Art of gift giving Choosing a perfect gift Gift packaging Gift wrapping Gift bags & boxes Gift cards & tags Popular gift ideas Thank you gifts Charitable gifts Baby & kids gifts Gifts for him Gifts for her Romantic gifts Religious gifts Get well gifts Party gifts Housewarming gifts Adult Gifts Sympathy gifts Gifts for friends Gifts for teens Business gifts Holiday gifts Graduation gift Easter gifts Valentines day gift Mothers day gift Fathers day gift Christmas gift Birthday gift Anniversary gift Bouquet & Arrangement Mothers Day Flowers Valentines Day Flowers Birthday Flowers Sympathy and funeral flowers Easter flowers Wedding flowers Flower language Exotic flowers Gerber daisies Carnations Tulips Roses Flowers & plants House plants Dried flowers Garden flowers Fresh cut & artificial flowers Flower market variety Seasonal flowers Flower delivery services Wholesale flowers Housewarming gifts Your friends or relatives are moving into a new house, and youre invited on the housewarming. Of course, guests arent supposed to come with empty hands, and the case is rather special. So you face a problem of a housewarming gift. A lot of different traditions are connected with moving into a new house. Some of them are very ancient, about most we dont know, and even less we follow. The times have changed a lot and so have done some of those traditions. Nowadays housewarming gifts arent supposed to be massive and expensive, as they were used to be before. But they should be useful. As well as in case of celebrating marriage, you are welcome to ask the hosts if they need anything on their new place. Nowadays its normal to present money, though it could be taken as offence in the previous centuries. Still you can present some symbolic housewarming gifts. It can be a figure of a household ghost, who is supposed to conjure evil away. There existed a tradition to let a cat or a cock into a new house first. So cats, cocks, hens and dogs are considered to be the keepers of a new home. Nobody expects that you will bring the whole zoo with you on the housewarming, but you may present some statues, figures and toys, shaped like these animals, or nicely decorated pictures with their images. Another ancient tradition is to hang a horseshoe, found on the road, over the door. So anything, that reminds of a horseshoe or has its shape, presented as a housewarming gift, will show the hosts that you wish they felt comfortable on the new place.. The prosaic, but useful gifts, like kitchen towels, set of glasses, frying pens, set of utensils, a small carpet in the corridor, bad-clothes wont excite a hostess too much. But you can be sure that already next day she might remember you in the warmest words. If you wan to give something both nice and useful, you may choose some original vases or wall clocks. Always keep in mind that humble but long-lasting gifts are much better, than a bunch of roses which will be thrown away by the end by the week. Online Dating Service · Photo Personals · Meet singles · Personal Ads · Directory · Dating Site · Dating advice · Articles Privacy Statement | Terms of Use | Site Map | Contact Us | Report a Bug © 2004,2005 SearchYourLove TM partners sites: Great Holidays and Hotels // Health and Beauty Journal // MotorListing // Millennium Rise // EstateIndex // Russian brides // Mail order brides // Casino journal // Dating & Personals // Admotor Russian brides // Gambling online // Mail order brides // Admotor // Millennium Rise // MotorListing // EstateIndex Great Holidays and Hotels // Health and Beauty Journal

Gifts For Women