Birthday Present

Math Forum: Ask Dr. Math FAQ: The Birthday Problem -- Ask Dr. Math: FAQ The Birthday Problem Dr. Math FAQ || Classic Problems || Formulas || Search Dr. Math || Dr. Math Home Suppose you flip a coin and bet that it will come up tails. Since you are equally likely to get heads or tails, the probability of tails is 50%. This means that if you try this bet often, you should win about half the time. What if somebody offered to bet that at least two people in your math class had the same birthday? Would you take the bet? This question is more complicated than flipping a coin, because the chance of finding two people with the same birthday depends on the number of people you ask. If there were only one other person in your math class, you might be surprised to find out that she had the same birthday as you. If there were a pair of people with the same birthday in a class of 366 people, would you still be surprised? How large must a class be to make the probability of finding two people with the same birthday at least 50%? Let's forget about leap year when we solve this problem (no February 29 birthdays!) This way, we can assume that a year is always 365 days long. We'll start by figuring out the probability that two people have the same birthday. The first person can have any birthday. That gives him 365 possible birthdays out of 365 days, so the probability of the first person having the "right" birthday is 365/365, or 100%. The chance that the second person has the same birthday is 1/365. To find the probability that both people have this birthday, we have to multiply their separate probabilities. (365/365) * (1/365) = 1/365, or about 0.27%. Now, what about three people ? The chance of the first and second person sharing a birthday is still 1/365. The first and third person might share a birthday instead. The probability of that is 1/365 as well. But what if the second and third person shared a birthday? And what if all three of them had the same birthday? Things are getting complicated fast. Four or five people would be even messier. Is there a simpler way? To solve the birthday problem, we need to use one of the basic rules of probability: the sum of the probability that an event will happen and the probability that the event won't happen is always 1. (In other words, the chance that anything might or might nothappen is always 100%.) If we can work out the probability that no two people will have the same birthday, we can use this rule to find the probability that two people will share a birthday: P(event happens) + P(event doesn't happen) = 1 P(two people share birthday) + P(no two people share birthday) = 1 P(two people share birthday) = 1 - P(no two people share birthday). So, what is the probability that no two people will share a birthday? Again, the first person can have any birthday. The second person's birthday has to be different. There are 364 different days to choose from, so the chance that two people have different birthdays is 364/365. That leaves 363 birthdays out of 365 open for the third person. To find the probability that both the second person and the third person will have different birthdays, we have to multiply: (365/365) * (364/365) * (363/365) = 132 132/133 225, which is about 99.18%. If we want to know the probability that four people will all have different birthdays, we multiply again: (364/365) * (363/365) * (362/365) = 47 831 784/ 48 627 125, or about 98.36%. We can keep on going the same way as long as we want. A formula for the probability that n people have different birthdays is ((365-1)/365) * ((365-2)/365) * ((365-3)/365) * . . . * ((365-n+1)/365). If you know permutation notation, you can write this formula as (365_P_n)/(365^n). That's the same as 365! / ((365-n)! * 365^n). We've made some progress, but we still haven't answered the original question: how large must a class be to make the probability of finding two people with the same birthday at least 50%? We know that the probability of finding at least two people with the same birthday is 1 minus the probability that everybody has a different birthday, and we know how to find the probability that everybody has a different birthday for any number of people. The easiest way to find the right class size is to use a calculator to try different numbers in the formula. It turns out that the smallest class where the chance of finding two people with the same birthday is more than 50% is... a class of 23 people . (The probability is about 50.73%.) From the Dr. Math archives: Probability Theory: Coincidental Birthday Probability of the Same Birthday within a Group Birthday Probabilities Three Share a Birthday The Birthday Problem; Queuing at a Bank Birthday Probability, Class of 25 One Person of Seven Born on Monday Odds of Left-Handedness in a Group From the Web: The Birthday Problem: A short lesson in probability , George Reese A Java applet that you can use to test different class sizes (it works better with small classes) and graphs of the probability for different numbers of people. The Law of Small Errors , Keith Devlin The birthday problem, and related questions - what's the probability that someone will have your birthday? Birthday Surprises, Ivars Peterson Birthday Problem, Eric Weisstein's World of Mathematics Coincidence, Alexander Bogomolny How to Read Mathematics, Shai Simonson and Fernando Gouveau This article uses an explanation of the birthday problem as an example. An Introduction to Mathematica and the "Birthday Problem," Louie Beuschlein For a general review of probability: Probability, Dr. Math FAQ Probability in the Real World, Dr. Math FAQ - Ursula Whitcher, for the Math Forum Submit your ownquestion to Dr. Math [ Privacy Policy ] [ Terms of Use ] Math Forum Home || Math Library || Quick Reference || Math Forum Search Ask Dr. Math ® © 1994-2005 The Math Forum http://mathforum.org/dr.math/

HOUSEWARMING GIFT BASKETS, Free

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Gallery Quilt: High Heeled Wedding Gift Quilt  You are here: About > Home & Garden > Quilting Home & Garden Quilting Essentials Learning Techniques Projects Easy Projects for Beginners Free Patterns on This Site Quilt Ideas & Resources Here Quilt Shop Reviews Articles & Resources Free Patterns-Projects Fabrics-Materials Applique Quilt Equipment Beginners Community & Personalities Graphics Clip Art Techniques & Tips History-Collecting-Care Quilt Miscellany Computers Software Galleries of Quilts Books Media Reviews Foundation Piecing Buyer's Guide Before You Buy Top Picks Children's Quilting Books Quilter Gifts Under $30 Quilting Calendars Product Reviews Articles Forums Help FREE Newsletter Sign Up Now for the Quilting newsletter! See Online Courses   Search Quilting Gallery Quilt: High Heeled Wedding Gift Quilt Quilting Blog « Quick Easy Quilts for Katrina Victims | Main | Square in a Square quilt block - 2 easy sewing methods » From Susan C. Druding , Your Guide to Quilting . FREE Newsletter. Sign Up Now! August 29, 2005 Gallery Quilt: High Heeled Wedding Gift Quilt Gallery: Sharry's High Heel Quilt and free pattern Here are photos of a quilt and details of blocks made from the applique pattern for High Heeled Shoe with Bow pattern. Sharry used great little detail embellishments and an interesting crazy quilt style background for her gift quilt. There is a link to the original free applique pattern, too. - Thanks to Sharry for sending these photos to share! I confess to getting a thrill seeing my patterns being used. ~ Susan Email to a Friend Display Latest Headlines | | | Read Archives powered by Movable Type Advertisement Most Popular Quilt Greeting Card - easy small gift Free Easy Log Cabin Quilt Block Pattern: log cabin in severa... easy baby quilt or lap quilt project - a free quilting patte... Useful basic quilt block - easy and fast to make for quick q... Quick quilts for Katrina Refugees What's Hot Why you should press your quilt seams open by Mabry Benson Sewing a Quarter Inch Seam How To Make a Quilt Greeting Card How To Make Fast and Easy Baby Quilt Half Log Cabin quilt blocks in 2 styles - free quilt pattern... Related Topics Sewing Knitting Antiques Women's History Arts / Crafts Business        Topic Index | Email to a Friend Our Story | Be a Guide | Advertising Info | Work at About | Site Map | Icons | Help User Agreement | Ethics Policy | Patent Info. | Privacy Policy | Kids' Privacy Policy ©2005 About, Inc., A part of the New York Times Company . All rights reserved. Around About Poll: What would you do with $10 million? 1) Spend it 4) Pay bills 2) Donate 5) Save 3) Invest 6) Not sure Is New York City Safe? Tips for Women Travelling What's Hot Why you should press your quilt seams open by Mabry Benson Sewing a Quarter Inch Seam How To Make a Quilt Greeting Card How To Make Fast and Easy Baby Quilt Half Log Cabin quilt blocks in 2 styles - free quilt pattern... Headlines An Applique Halloween wall hanging - with ghost, cat, pumpkin and bat free holloween quilt block patterns to piece and applique Sewing a Quarter Inch Seam Sewing a Quarter Inch Seam Sewing an exact quarter inch... Quick-Easy Quilts for Katrina Evacuees Quick quilts for Katrina Evacuees These will make up quickly!... QUILTERS COMFORT AMERICA QUILTERS COMFORT AMERICA A Cooperative Project To Comfort Victims of...

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