Birthday Present for Monster
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Buy a Birthday Present for Monster A guide by boshkabob ,Friend of Monster E-mail this guide to a friend Record and Play (4095) Buy new : $24.97 Availability: Usually ships in 24 hours Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Book 6) Buy new : $16.99 Availability: Usually ships in 24 hours Bertie Bott's 10 Flavor Discovery Box Buy new : $5.99 Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days See all products 'Record and Play (4095)' You could take over the world with this! 'Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Book 6)' Can't wait until July 16th! 'Bertie Bott's 10 Flavor Discovery Box' You could eat these while you read the book! 'The Sims Unleashed Expansion Pack' Pick up any Sims Expansions you don't have! 'The Sims Makin' Magic Expansion Pack' Pick up any Sims Expansions you don't have! 'The Sims Superstar Expansion Pack' Pick up any Sims Expansions you don't have! 'The Sims: Hot Date Expansion Pack' Pick up any Sims Expansions you don't have! 'The Sims Vacation Expansion Pack' Pick up any Sims Expansions you don't have! 'LEGO Island 2' Looks like fun, got great reviews, inexpensive! 'Lego Star Wars' This looks like alot of fun, but the customer reviews say that it has high system requirements, so I would make sure you can run it, if you are looking to buy this. 'Godiva Chocolate: All-Milk Chocolate Assortment 11oz. (22 pieces)' Yummy! Products mentioned include: 1. Record and Play (4095) by LEGO Systems, Inc Offered by: Toys"R"Us List Price: $49.99 Buy new : $24.97 You Save : $25.02 (50%) Availability: Usually ships in 24 hours You could take over the world with this! 2. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Book 6) by Mary GrandPre (Illustrator), J.K. Rowling (Photographer) List Price: $29.99 Buy new : $16.99 You Save : $13.00(43%) Availability: Usually ships in 24 hours Used & new from $11.25 Can't wait until July 16th! 3. Bertie Bott's 10 Flavor Discovery Box Offered by: Jelly Belly Candy Co. Buy new : $5.99 Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days You could eat these while you read the book! 4. The Sims Unleashed Expansion Pack [CD] by Electronic Arts Average Customer Rating: Buy new : $9.99 Availability: Usually ships in 24 hours Used & new from $8.50 Pick up any Sims Expansions you don't have! 5. The Sims Makin' Magic Expansion Pack [CD] by Electronic Arts Average Customer Rating: Buy new : $9.99 Availability: Usually ships in 24 hours Used & new from $8.26 Pick up any Sims Expansions you don't have! 6. The Sims Superstar Expansion Pack [CD] by Electronic Arts Average Customer Rating: Buy new : $9.99 Availability: Usually ships in 24 hours Used & new from $4.95 Pick up any Sims Expansions you don't have! 7. The Sims: Hot Date Expansion Pack [CD] by Electronic Arts Average Customer Rating: Offered by: GameStop Buy new : $9.99 Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days Used & new from $6.26 Pick up any Sims Expansions you don't have! 8. The Sims Vacation Expansion Pack [CD] by Electronic Arts Average Customer Rating: Availability: Currently unavailable Used & new from $24.94 Pick up any Sims Expansions you don't have! 9. LEGO Island 2 [CD] by LEGO Media International Average Customer Rating: Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days. Used & new from $0.44 Looks like fun, got great reviews, inexpensive! 10. Lego Star Wars [CD] by Eidos Interactive List Price: $29.99 Buy new : $25.99 You Save : $4.00 (13%) Availability: Usually ships in 24 hours Used & new from $24.00 This looks like alot of fun, but the customer reviews say that it has high system requirements, so I would make sure you can run it, if you are looking to buy this. 11. Godiva Chocolate: All-Milk Chocolate Assortment 11oz. (22 pieces) Offered by: Godiva Chocolatier Buy new : $28.00 Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days Yummy! Create your own guide! 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Birthday Present
Math Forum: Ask Dr. Math FAQ: The Birthday Problem -- Ask Dr. Math: FAQ The Birthday Problem Dr. Math FAQ || Classic Problems || Formulas || Search Dr. Math || Dr. Math Home Suppose you flip a coin and bet that it will come up tails. Since you are equally likely to get heads or tails, the probability of tails is 50%. This means that if you try this bet often, you should win about half the time. What if somebody offered to bet that at least two people in your math class had the same birthday? Would you take the bet? This question is more complicated than flipping a coin, because the chance of finding two people with the same birthday depends on the number of people you ask. If there were only one other person in your math class, you might be surprised to find out that she had the same birthday as you. If there were a pair of people with the same birthday in a class of 366 people, would you still be surprised? How large must a class be to make the probability of finding two people with the same birthday at least 50%? Let's forget about leap year when we solve this problem (no February 29 birthdays!) This way, we can assume that a year is always 365 days long. We'll start by figuring out the probability that two people have the same birthday. The first person can have any birthday. That gives him 365 possible birthdays out of 365 days, so the probability of the first person having the "right" birthday is 365/365, or 100%. The chance that the second person has the same birthday is 1/365. To find the probability that both people have this birthday, we have to multiply their separate probabilities. (365/365) * (1/365) = 1/365, or about 0.27%. Now, what about three people ? The chance of the first and second person sharing a birthday is still 1/365. The first and third person might share a birthday instead. The probability of that is 1/365 as well. But what if the second and third person shared a birthday? And what if all three of them had the same birthday? Things are getting complicated fast. Four or five people would be even messier. Is there a simpler way? To solve the birthday problem, we need to use one of the basic rules of probability: the sum of the probability that an event will happen and the probability that the event won't happen is always 1. (In other words, the chance that anything might or might nothappen is always 100%.) If we can work out the probability that no two people will have the same birthday, we can use this rule to find the probability that two people will share a birthday: P(event happens) + P(event doesn't happen) = 1 P(two people share birthday) + P(no two people share birthday) = 1 P(two people share birthday) = 1 - P(no two people share birthday). So, what is the probability that no two people will share a birthday? Again, the first person can have any birthday. The second person's birthday has to be different. There are 364 different days to choose from, so the chance that two people have different birthdays is 364/365. That leaves 363 birthdays out of 365 open for the third person. To find the probability that both the second person and the third person will have different birthdays, we have to multiply: (365/365) * (364/365) * (363/365) = 132 132/133 225, which is about 99.18%. If we want to know the probability that four people will all have different birthdays, we multiply again: (364/365) * (363/365) * (362/365) = 47 831 784/ 48 627 125, or about 98.36%. We can keep on going the same way as long as we want. A formula for the probability that n people have different birthdays is ((365-1)/365) * ((365-2)/365) * ((365-3)/365) * . . . * ((365-n+1)/365). If you know permutation notation, you can write this formula as (365_P_n)/(365^n). That's the same as 365! / ((365-n)! * 365^n). We've made some progress, but we still haven't answered the original question: how large must a class be to make the probability of finding two people with the same birthday at least 50%? We know that the probability of finding at least two people with the same birthday is 1 minus the probability that everybody has a different birthday, and we know how to find the probability that everybody has a different birthday for any number of people. The easiest way to find the right class size is to use a calculator to try different numbers in the formula. It turns out that the smallest class where the chance of finding two people with the same birthday is more than 50% is... a class of 23 people . (The probability is about 50.73%.) From the Dr. Math archives: Probability Theory: Coincidental Birthday Probability of the Same Birthday within a Group Birthday Probabilities Three Share a Birthday The Birthday Problem; Queuing at a Bank Birthday Probability, Class of 25 One Person of Seven Born on Monday Odds of Left-Handedness in a Group From the Web: The Birthday Problem: A short lesson in probability , George Reese A Java applet that you can use to test different class sizes (it works better with small classes) and graphs of the probability for different numbers of people. The Law of Small Errors , Keith Devlin The birthday problem, and related questions - what's the probability that someone will have your birthday? Birthday Surprises, Ivars Peterson Birthday Problem, Eric Weisstein's World of Mathematics Coincidence, Alexander Bogomolny How to Read Mathematics, Shai Simonson and Fernando Gouveau This article uses an explanation of the birthday problem as an example. An Introduction to Mathematica and the "Birthday Problem," Louie Beuschlein For a general review of probability: Probability, Dr. Math FAQ Probability in the Real World, Dr. Math FAQ - Ursula Whitcher, for the Math Forum Submit your ownquestion to Dr. Math [ Privacy Policy ] [ Terms of Use ] Math Forum Home || Math Library || Quick Reference || Math Forum Search Ask Dr. Math ® © 1994-2005 The Math Forum http://mathforum.org/dr.math/
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